Without significant immigration, the U.S. population will shrink by the end of the century, the elderly will outnumber children and non-Hispanic whites will make up less than half the population, the U.S. Census Bureau said.
The office presented three different forecasts through 2100, based on high, medium and low immigration.
With medium immigration it will grow to 365 million people, and with high immigration it will grow to 435 million people.
In either scenario, the population will age and become more diverse.
By 2029, there will be 71 million people over age 65 in the United States and 69 million under age 18, the Census Bureau said.
The numerical superiority of older people will mean a reduction in the active population. Together with children, they will make up 40% of the population.
Only 60% of the population will be of working age between 18 and 64 and will pay the majority of Social Security and Medicare taxes for seniors.
In 2038, the natural increase in the US population will turn negative, that is, the number of deaths will exceed the number of births. Initially, the Census Bureau projects the difference will be 13,000, but it will increase to 1.2 million by 2100.
By 2050, the share of the U.S. population that is white but non-Hispanic will be below 50% for the first time.
Currently it is 58.9%.
By 2050, Hispanics will make up a quarter of the US population, up from 19.1% today. African Americans will make up 14.4% of the population (currently 13.6%). The proportion of Asians will increase from 6.2% to 8.6%.
Also in the 2050s, Asians will surpass Hispanics as the largest immigrant group by race or ethnicity.
The greater diversity of the country will be more noticeable among children. By the 2060s, the share of non-Hispanic white children under age 18 will decline from about half today to one-third.
By the end of the 2090s, the share of the U.S. population born foreign will be nearly 19.5%, the highest since the Census Bureau began tracking it in 1850.
Until now, it peaked at 14.8% in 1890 and is now 13.9%.
When immigration is driven by climate change, social tensions and fluctuating anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States, immigration is harder to predict, said Manuel Pastor, a professor of sociology, American studies and ethnic studies at the University of Southern California. .
“We used to say that immigration is driven by the economy and you can make reasonable predictions,” Pastor said. “Now that we have these factors that push people to come to the United States and even more racialized reactions to migration, the margin of error or the potential for error increases.”
