The 2024 presidential election could be a new version of the 2020 election, when Joe Biden and Donald Trump were the leading contenders, but Trump will face many challenges on his path to the nomination. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Voice of America by American historian, political scientist, writer and Pulitzer Prize winner Jack Rakov.
Maxim Moskalkov: What are your predictions about the 2024 presidential elections?
Jack Rakov: Given the uncertainty of the current political environment, I can say with 80 percent probability that the 2024 election will be a new version of the 2020 election.
Maxim Moskalkov: Many Republicans, and some Democrats, argue that Joe Biden is too old to run for a second term. Can the age of the current president affect the voting results?
Jack Rakov: There is a lot of talk about Biden being somewhat older than Trump. But I think Biden is in much better shape than Trump. I have more serious concerns about Trump’s mental clarity. The other day, Trump gave a campaign speech and forgot what city he was in. If Biden did something similar, he would instantly be the target of numerous attacks. But Trump has fallen so low that no matter how many mistakes he makes, no one cares anymore. We know that Trump is a demagogue. We know that he attempted a coup d’état. He is practically illiterate, he cannot read well and can deliver the same speech over and over again to a loyal group of followers. We also know that he is an active supporter of Putin. And this is a very interesting question: Why is there so much pro-Putin sentiment in the Republican Party? This is a very strange trend that needs a separate discussion. Biden had a very successful presidency. He is well prepared for the second term. The United States economy is ahead of most other developed countries. Inflation is falling. We have a high employment rate. Everyone keeps predicting that we will have a recession. In fact, there is no sign of it. Biden lost one chamber of Congress, but he lost far fewer seats than everyone predicted.
Maxim Moskalkov: Why is Biden’s approval rating so low?
Jack Rakov: This demonstrates the discrepancy between empirically verifiable evidence, on the one hand, and popular opinion, on the other. To me this is surprising and mysterious.
Maxim Moskalkov: What issues are currently worrying American voters?
Jack Rakov: Suppose both candidates receive nominations. The real question is whether Trump will be convicted or not. And in fact, the chances of this happening are high. I mean, Jack Smith plans to put Trump on trial in March, and there’s no indication he’s going to abandon his plan. So it is Trump who has every chance of facing real problems. Nor should we forget about the changes in the electorate depending on age and gender. If you think about what issues best mobilize Democratic voters, it would be the issue of abortion. And it won’t go away. Women will not worry about gas prices any more than they worry about fundamental questions about their own health.
